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中信证券（600030）7月3日发布公告。We maintain our2023E/24E/25E sales forecast of160k/230k/300k units and2023E/24E/25E revenue forecast of Rmb36.3bn/56.1bn/73.8bn. At present, XPeng’s annual sales are close to Tesla’s sales in2016-18(XPeng’s sales were100k/120k units in2021/22, while Tesla’s sales were76k/101k/245k units in2016-18). The ratio of Tesla’s market cap at the end of2016to18to its revenue next year was between2.3x and2.7x. Considering XPeng’s proactive organizational restructuring and its entry into the “harvest period” of intelligentization, we assign2.7x2023E PS (benchmarked against the upper limit of Tesla’s reasonable historical PS range) to derive a target price of US$16to its US shares and a target price of HK$62to its H-shares and maintain the “BUY” rating on both.
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